Cary Development - The Last 25 Years

Google Earth has taken the Landsat satellite data to a new level with Earth Engine.  The last 25 years of satellite information is available for view anywhere on the earth.


Here is what the development of Cary looks like over the past 25 years.

Take some time to play with this tool as the visualization of change (consumption of land) is remarkable!

What's in a Number?

I'm starting to review the Town of Cary's 2014 Proposed Budget.  As I was reading through the History of Cary
page, I came across the following:

The 1990 Decennial Census reported the Town's population to be 44,276. The 2000 Decennial Census reported a population of 94,536, indicating a growth rate of 116% since 1990, which was an average of 11.6% per year. The 2010 Decennial Census reported the Town’s population to be 135,234, indicating a growth rate of 43% since 2000, which was an average of 4.3% per year.

Growth Rate Calculation Issues

So what is wrong with "...a growth rate of 116% since 1990, which was an average of 11.6% per year."?  Well you cannot just average the total growth over a decade to find the average growth rate per year.  This is a compounding problem, and you need to know the compounding rate to get an idea as to the average growth rate, or the growth you might read each year in reports of the year past.

From the Cary Census numbers:

• The 1990-2000 growth rate is really 7.88%
• The 2000-2010 growth rate is really 3.64%

Now these growth rates are still pretty big, but they give you more of a sense of how to compare them with the growth projections in the next few years.

The Rule of 72

You may remember this from school.  If you divide 72 by a growth rate (or interest rate on a bank account) you will get the period of time that your amount will double.  This is not exact, but it is good enough for mental math.  The rule used 72, 70 or 69 depending on where you learned it, but it is basically the same rule.

So a 1% growth rate will double the population in 72 years (about a lifetime).  A 10% growth rate will double in 7 years (think starting middle school and graduating high school).

There are lots of calculators that can perform compound growth calculations and that is what I used to calculate the above numbers.

The Takeaway:

You know the old saying "figures lie and liars figure".  I don't think that there was any intention to mislead the reader in this case, but you really need to use the correct numbers and use the proper calculations when you are performing analysis or you can come up with some unwanted results.  Be on your guard!

Cary-Raleigh Ranked 3rd in 2012 Best-Performing Cities

Cary-Raleigh (actually Raleigh-Cary, but I'm a little bias...) ranked 3rd in 2012 Best-Performing Cities by the Milken Institute.  See the report 2012 Best Performing Cities - Large Cities - Milken Institute.

Here is the data:

Raleigh-Cary, NC MSA
Overall Rank: 3

5-yr Job Growth (2006-2011)	Rank: 15
1-yr Job Growth (2010-2011)	Rank: 25
5-yr Wages & Salaries Growth (2005-2010)	Rank: 20
1-yr Wages & Salaries Growth (2009-2010)	Rank: 24
Job Growth (May 11 - May 12)	Rank: 51
5-yr Relative HT GDP Growth (2006-2011)	Rank: 94
1-yr Relative HT GDP Growth (2010-2011)	Rank: 66
High-Tech GDP LQ - 2011	Rank: 25
# of HT GDP LQs Over 1 - 2011	Rank: 17

I'll have to do some analysis, but how can you rank 3rd if your average rank is 37.4th...

NCSU Lulu E-games

$40,000 in prizes.

Major Sponsors:
Bob Young, Founder and CEO, Lulu
Bob Creeden, Director, Blackstone Entrepreneurs Network

Nothing like this existed when I was in Engineering School!

Entrepreneurship brings "the practical" to many of the classes we take in engineering.  Great ideas, but will anyone buy them...

I had a chance to talk to all of the teams.  I asked questions like "What problem are you trying to solve?", "Who is your market?", "What potential customers have you talked to and what did they think?" and many other typical questions.  I was impressed with the responses I received.  The ideas and state of the development of the projects spanned the spectrum.  Hopefully a few will have a chance in the market.

What struck me most was how well prepared these students were.  If I think back to the non-thesis project that got me through my Master's degree, all of these students are well ahead of where I was (and my project will remain shrouded in mystery to protect the innocent ;)

Kudos to NCSU, to their Entrepreneurship program and to all the students participating today!

Et Tu, QR?

"Et Tu, Brute?" is a quote from Julius Ceasar made famous by Shakespeare.  The quote has gained popularity as meaning an utmost betrayal.

With the ubiquitous mobile devices we now carry comes a very popular way of getting content - the QR code; short for Quick Response.  We are seeing QR codes everywhere, but is it safe to image just any QR code you come across?  The answer is NO.

Look at the QR code presented to the left.  Where does it go?  Is it safe to go where it wants to take you?  How would you know?

As with any new Technology, there are people who will use it for ill-gotten means.  QR codes can take you to sites that are infected, sites that want to steal your identity and other places you don't generally want to be.  Some QR codes have even been reported to send a text message to services that charge you for the text!


Now look to the QR code to the left.  This is the same QR as above, but in addition to the QR, there is information on where you should expect the QR code will take you.  This is a best practice for municipalities, merchants and all other organizations.  Make sure that people looking at your literature or posters know where the QR code will take them.

Also, use a QR reader application that shows you the URL - the destination where the QR code wants to take you.  If the destination is an SMS (text message), a site that wants your personal information or a site that does not make sense for the advertisement, don't go there!

What about URL's shortened with services like "bit.ly", "goo.gl" or "tinyurl.com" which are some of the most popular URL shortening services?  QR codes can encode up to 4,296 alphanumeric characters (numbers, letters, etc.) so there is no reason to show a shortened URL even for the longest web site names.

Be informed and be safe while imaging these very useful shortcuts.  Don't let something that has become very familiar betray you.  Don't be the one that says "Et tu, QR?"